The Forecast Reconciled—The Assumptions Didn’t: How Bottom-Up Stress Testing Improves Resilience

A forecast can reconcile cleanly on paper while embedding assumptions that have never been examined against how customers, ...
The Motley Fool

Federal Reserve Research: Kalshi Prediction Markets Are Just as Good, if Not Better, Than Traditional Forecasting Methods

Kalshi is a platform where users can bet on outcomes for just about anything, from sporting events to economic indicators to presidential elections. Recent research by the Federal Reserve found that ...
WESH

2026 Hurricane Season | WESH long-range forecast identifies possible hot-spots

LIZ KREUZ, NBC NEWS. ALL RIGHT. TAKE A LOOK AT YOUR SCREEN. IT’S THE COUNTDOWN NONE OF US WANT TO SEE RIGHT NOW, BUT WE NEED TO. TO STAY INFORMED. MAYBE. HARD TO BELIEVE, BUT JUST 90 DAYS LEFT UNTIL ...
Medical Xpress

New method could improve US forecasting of West Nile virus

West Nile virus is the most common mosquito-borne illness in the continental United States and can in rare cases lead to a much more serious disease with an approximately 10% fatality rate. West Nile ...
Bloomberg L.P.

Kalshi and Polymarket Are Economic Oracles

Aaron Brown is a former head of financial market research at AQR Capital Management. He is also an active crypto investor, and has venture capital investments and advisory ties with crypto firms. The ...
Phys.org

Surprise solar eruptions on sun's far side validate new forecasting method

A team of scientists from around the world has created the first system that can predict when and where extremely powerful solar storms, called superflares, are most likely to happen. These storms can ...
IEEE

FPSO-Time: A Fuzzy Time Series Forecasting Method Based on Fuzzy Particle Swarm Optimization and Reprogrammed Large Language Models

Abstract: Time series forecasting is widely used in finance, meteorology, and industrial systems. Although existing methods have made progress in modeling trends and periodicity, they still face ...
Business Insider

Kalshi may be more useful than some traditional economic forecasting methods, Fed researchers find

Kalshi says it's more than just betting and that it offers high-quality forecasts. Now, a research paper from a group of Federal Reserve economists is backing that up. The researchers found that ...
AOL

Kalshi may be more useful than some traditional economic forecasting methods, Fed researchers find

Kalshi may be good for more than just making a quick buck. A new research paper published by a trio of Federal Reserve economists suggests that the prediction market platform is a useful method for ...